Africa's Week In Brief
Week of 24 - 28 April, 2023
Dear Africa Brief,
TL;DR
Western diplomats have left Sudan. When diplomats leave, talking usually ends and fighting intensifies. Antonio Guterres, the UN’s secretary-general, warned that the fighting could spread to other countries in the region. Thousands of Sudanese have left for Sudan's 7 neighboring countries
If Sudan descends into civil war, then there is little keeping the rest of the Horn of Africa together — this could be the biggest humanitarian event of the year. Food shortages and energy inflation have already battered much of the region
Africa’s states are shifting their alliances eastwards in an increasingly multipolar world
South Africa’s government wants 30% equitable ownership of Starlink operations in the country which also happens to be where Elon Musk spent most of his childhood
With the BRICS summit impending, South Africa wants to leave the International Criminal Court. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said that his government will pull out of the ICC to allow Russian President Vladimir Putin to attend the summit in South Africa in August. He later walked back the comments
Japan has agreed to exclude South Africa from the 2023 G7 meeting. Western countries are unhappy about Pretoria’s neutral stance on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
This week: on Thursday, April 27 South Africa's Freedom Day marks the 29th anniversary of the country’s first democratic elections. It is also the date in which Sierra Leone became independent.
w/o 24 April - 28 April 2023
Graphic of the Week
Credit: The Economist Intelligence Unit
In Context: The world is becoming more multipolar by the year. Businesses, citizens and governments should ask themselves; how to survive a superpower split?
Business in Africa
Starting in Southern Africa this week, Zimbabwe will introduce a gold-backed digital currency meant to stabilize the Zimbabwean dollar's continued depreciation against the US dollar. The local currency officially trades at Z$1000 against a single US dollar, however in reality it readily changes hands at Z$1750 (Fin24).
Staying in Southern Africa, South Africa's Department of Mineral Resources & Energy has granted TotalEnergies environmental authorization to conduct exploratory drilling off the country’s southwest coast (Fin24). The proposed drilling is planned from Q.4 2023 to Q.2 2024. In neighboring Mozambique, TotalEnergies is eyeing returning to the Mocímboa da Praia district of Cabo Delgado — the region has seen violent insurgents control much of the province at devastating cost to its people and economy (News24).
Credit: McKinsey & Company
Musk’s Starlink, the satellite broadband internet company operated by SpaceX, will have to meet the 30% ‘equitable ownership’ threshold if it wants to offer services in South Africa (Beeld). Satellite internet holds the promise of broadband access to South Africans in rural areas.
In North Africa, Egypt has started invoicing foreign yachts and cruise ships in US dollars instead of the Egyptian pound for the first time ever. The move comes as the government hopes to alleviate the country’s foreign reserve crisis.
The International Monetary Fund has approved the first review of Tanzania’s three-year extended credit facility, paving the way for the immediate disbursement of up to $153 million in budgetary support ([Reuters). Staying in the country, the Tanzanian government signed agreements worth $667 million with three Australian companies to mine graphite and rare earth minerals. Tanzania will have a 16% stake in each of the deals signed with Evolution Energy Minerals, EcoGraf Ltd., and Peak Rare Earths. The United States and its allies are looking to reduce China’s control of rare earth minerals.
As we have seen in past Africa briefings, China controls most of the continent’s critical and rare earths minerals, including some 71% of graphite processing. For its part, Zimbabwe, currently the world’s sixth-largest lithium supplier, is looking to supply 20% of global lithium. Much of that mining is Chinese-owned, however, after Chinese firm Huayou Cobalt acquired Zimbabwe’s Arcadia Lithium Mine for $422 million in 2022 (Foreign Policy).
The IMF is also making progress in Zambia, where a long-awaited restructuring of Zambia’s $12.8 billion external loan debts is close to being finalized, Restructuring is needed to unlock credit lines from the fund.
The New Development Bank, the BRICS bank, has returned to capital markets with its first U.S. dollar bond issuance since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. None of the money will be lent to Russia, the bank’s chief financial officer, Leslie Maasdorp, tells Devex. The $1.25 billion green bond will support a range of projects, including climate-related programs.
Climate Change in Africa
New York Times reports on a study finding that climate change made droughts in East Africa 100 times as likely as in the preindustrial era. In Malawi, farmers are diversifying their crops and turning away from planting in rows and saturating the soils with chemicals in an effort to maintain yields.
Democracy in Africa
Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni refused to sign into law a controversial new Bill against homosexuality that prescribes the death penalty in some cases, requesting that it should be amended with provisions for “rehabilitation” (News24). See past Africa briefings for more details on this Bill and its implications for western aid donations.
The Japanese government has confirmed that it excluded SA from the G7 summit because it believes that Pretoria can no longer speak for the continent on international affairs. The Sunday Times reports that speculation is rife about the Japanese government’s about turn. Western countries are unhappy about Pretoria’s neutral stance on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine Sunday Times.
Health in Africa
The World Health Organization warns of biohazard risk in Khartoum after one of the warring parties in Sudan seized a laboratory housing measles and cholera pathogens (Reuters).
Peace and Security in Africa
Sudan
This week Sudan’s warring military factions agreed to a 72-hour ceasefire brokered by America and Saudi Arabia. Antony Blinken, America’s Secretary of State, announced the truce after two days of negotiations. Previous attempts at a ceasefire have failed. Like the others, this ceasefire has not held in parts of the country.
Mr Blinken assured the world and the Sudanese people that America would work with Sudan’s civilian groups and regional partners to “support a durable end to the fighting”. Clashes between Sudan’s army and the Rapid Support Forces, a paramilitary unit, have killed more than 400 people so far.
Most Western nations have pulled their diplomats and civilians out of the country, raising concerns that the exit of foreign diplomats might precipitate an even more brutal turn in the conflict — this usually follows diplomatic exodus.
Humanitarian losses
In addition to the lives lost, thousands of Sudanese are streaming into neighboring nations, including Chad, Egypt and South Sudan, raising concerns about a humanitarian crisis spreading to places already grappling with conflict, hunger and dire economic conditions. As prices soar, food is scarce and likely to become scarcer still; over the weekend, the country’s largest flour mill was destroyed in fighting. Even supplies of cash are running low (New York Times). There are numerous reports of bombed-out homes and damaged hospitals being used as military bases.
Figures from the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs show that before the current battles erupted, $1.75 billion was likely needed to meet humanitarian needs in the country, although only $236.7 million had been received (Devex).
Diplomacy
Despite Blinken’s efforts, analysts warn that more influential regional actors such as Egypt, Russia, and Gulf nations, which have involved themselves in Sudan before, could prolong the war by officially picking a side.
Gulf nations and Russia benefit from financial ties to RSF's leader Hemeti's businesses in gold mining, banking, and agriculture. Kenya’s government, an important player in the region, which has grown closer to the United States since President William Ruto took office, directly accused Russia and Gulf nations of political meddling in Sudan.
Meanwhile Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi may have been sabotaging Sudan’s democratic transition because Sudan’s military favors Cairo’s interests. For its part, Ethiopian President Abiy Ahmed denied reports that Ethiopian forces had attacked this disputed al-Fashqa border areas, which Sudan is accused of having reclaimed during Ethiopia’s civil war.
African Union Commission Chairperson Moussa Faki Mahamat convened a virtual special ministerial meeting on Thursday attended by regional and foreign powers, including the Arab League, Libya, Russia, and China — in an attempt to broker peace (NYT).
Other News
In neighboring Ethiopia, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, is holding peace talks with the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), a rebel group. In November Abiy struck a truce with the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front, another group in the country’s north that had fought the government for two years for its seccession from the federal government. The Prime Minister appears eager to strike a similar pact with the OLA. Ethiopia’s federal government continues to battle to keep the country from splitting up (Economist).
Moving west along the Sahel, at least 150 unarmed civilians were killed in northern Burkina Faso by men wearing the uniforms of the national military (New York Times). The security situation is equally as bad in Niger and Mali.
Credit: The Economist
US in Africa
USAID has sent a disaster response team to Sudan to coordinate the humanitarian response for those in need both within and outside of the country (VOA).
Warmly,
Joshua