Africa's Week In Brief
27 Feb - 3 March, 2023
Dear Africa Brief,
TL;DR:
Bola Tinubu the Presidential Candidate of the All Progressive Congress party was declared the winner of Nigeria’s presidential election. Mr Tinubu won 37% of the vote. The opposition parties called for a re-run. The new president will face the ‘the world’s toughest in-tray’
FATF ‘grey lists’ Nigeria and South Africa — likely to result in a decline in foreign direct investment for two economies in desperate need of foreign capital
France’s Macron visits West Africa and is expected to unveil a new France-Africa strategy, this will include military withdrawal in many regions
Somalia’s rains have failed for the sixth consecutive season, the Horn of Africa is on the brink of catastrophic famine — exacerbated by the war in Ukraine and the reduction in world food production
Africa’s tech start ups continue to attract financing for innovative solutions to societal challenges
Microsoft launches a slew of new partnerships to expand internet connectivity and train youth and entrepreneurs — a clever bet on the world’s youngest continent (Africa is seen as a key training ground for software developers)
The US focuses its attention on rare earths and critical minerals
What I am reading: Cobalt Red, an exposé of the immense human suffering in and environmental degradation of the Democratic Republic of the Congo caused by cobalt mining — the life blood of the world’s green energy transition. More than 70% of the world's supply of cobalt is mined in the Congo, often undertaken by children in inhumane conditions. The book details why we must all care about what is happening in the Congo-because we are all implicated.
w/o 27 Feb - 3 March 2023
Graphic of the Week
*Credit: New York Times
In context: The New York Times reports that despite the West’s best efforts to isolate Russia, universal condemnation of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is far from being achieved. Back in March 2022, the FT reported that “Africans overwhelmingly support the principles of democracy even when their leaders are reluctant to supply it. Africa’s most robust if imperfect democracies, such as Ghana, Kenya, Mauritius, Niger, Nigeria and Zambia, lined up to condemn Russia.” In contrast, however, South Africa, Zimbabwe, CAR, Mali, Mozambique and others abstained from the US General Assembly vote.
Business in Africa
The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) placed Nigeria and South Africa on a ‘grey list’ of countries that need to improve financial and law enforcement mechanisms to prevent money laundering, terrorism financing, and related unlawful financial activities (Fin24). FAFT gave the countries some reprieve in that the organization said both South Africa and Nigeria made ‘significant progress’ on many of its recommendations to improve their respective law enforcement systems. Typically, grey listing designation makes increases the cost of business for the finance sector and is usually followed by a decline in foreign direct investment according to Intellidex.
South Africa and Nigeria need to do more quickly in ensuring the independence and competency of institutions tasked with investigating and prosecuting illicit financial activity.
Meanwhile and not too far away from South Africa, Namibia’s Treasury announced cuts to bailouts for state-owned enterprises (SOEs) for the 2023/24 fiscal year to just N$1bn (~US$68million).
Observer Research Foundation reports that Africa boasts over 500 fintech firms, predominantly based out of South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya and Tanzania. McKinsey’s “Fintech in Africa: The End of the Beginning” report found that the continent’s fintech revenues could surge eight times (yes, 8x) their current value within just three years. Between 2020-2021 alone the number of tech startups tripled to 5,200 companies. 7 of the 10 newly minted African unicorns are in fintech.
*Credit: McKinsey & Company
If the African Free Continental Trade Area is to deliver on its immense economic promise, then goods and people need ease of travel. Unfortunately, the state of Africa’s roads limit regional trade. Another problem is delays at border posts where bureaucracy and corruption add unnecessary costs to business. Just this week the DRC and Zambia vowed to resolve customs delays for trucks transporting copper from the two top producers in Africa (Voice of America). The DRC trucks out tons of rare earths that drive (excuse the pun) the transition to green energy.
*Credit: Tralac
China in Africa
Two US based think tanks weigh in on Sino-Africa relations this week. First, the German Marshall Fund in a podcast reflects on US-China Competition in Africa and the decline in Belt and Road Initiative funding on the continent, $28.4bn in 2016 and down to $1.9bn in 2020. While the US launched a renewed diplomatic push on the continent with Treasure Secretary Yellen and US Amb. Linda Thomas-Greenfield visiting the continent just this year following Biden’s hosting of 49 African leaders at the United States-Africa Leaders Summit in Washington, DC.
The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace meanwhile considers Chinese media and PR engagement strategies on the continent.
Climate in Africa
The Horn of Africa continues to experience the worst drought in decades, the region has now missed six rainy seasons. In response, the UNHCR has launched an appeal for $127million migrants and refugees displaced by the environmental crisis.
Democracy in Africa
Feeling unsafe? According to Afrobarometer, a non-partisan survey research firm, a majority of citizens (52%) reported feeling unsafe walking around their own neighborhoods in 2022. Ensuring physical safety and security is a fundamental social provision to be provided by any legitimate government. Insecurity also harms democracy. According to Afrobarometer, those who say they “always” feel unsafe in their neighborhood are 4% less likely to believe that democracy is the best political system for their country and 7% more likely to approve of military rule.
Health in Africa
The African Union elected Dr. Jean Kaseya as the Africa CDC’s first Director General. Dr. Kaseya shared that he wants the Africa CDC to be efficiently managed, accountable to the public, as well as financially autonomous — all welcome commitments.
Soon after his appointment, the Africa CDC released a listing of epidemic prone diseases of high concern (Reuters). The ranking allows for national and regional agencies to prioritize the deployment of resources when responding to infections. The highest ranking (most scary) diseases were Ebola, COVID-19, Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever, Marburg, and an “unknown disease”, while chikungunya, poliovirus, mpox, and dengue fever scored lowest (less scary).
Europe in Africa
2022 was a difficult year for France and its relationship with West African states. In a renewed attempt to improve these relations, French President Macron begins his tour of the region by co-hosting a “one-forest summit” in Libreville, Gabon. Known as the “lungs of Africa”, the Congo basin contains the world’s second-biggest rainforest after the Amazon.
Thereafter President Macron heads to Angola, Congo and the Democratic Republic of Congo. The French President is widely expected to unveil a new Africa policy — this in the midst of Europe’s scramble for Africa’s hydrocarbons and the French losing its security influence in West Africa to the Wagner Group. The BBC reports that this trip comes at a difficult time as anti-French sentiment has been running high in some of its former colonies in the Sahel. Burkina Faso last month gave France a month to withdraw its 400 special forces, and announced an official end to the French military operation in the country.
Peace and Security in Africa
Foreign Policy brings to light the methods Russia deploys to position itself as an anti-colonial power in a world increasingly defined by its multipolarity. The article notes that “Even Russia’s current war in Ukraine, despite all its imperial accouterments, is depicted by Russian media and politicians as a war of liberation.” It is precisely this narrative, one in which Russia is liberator rather than aggressor, that the Kremlin continues to invest vast amounts of time and resources propagating across African media.
Despite its media attention, Ukraine was not the bloodiest conflict of 2022. Instead, Ethiopia’s civil war saw the deaths of some 600,000 people — so reflects Mark Lowcock, the former U.N. humanitarian chief (Financial Times). New reporting reveals that Eritrean troops massacred hundreds of civilians in Tigray just before a peace deal was struck between the state and Ethiopia’s federal government (New York Times).
Not too far away from Ethiopia, the US sent some 61 tonnes of arms and ammunition to Somalia, in its support for government forces fighting al-Shabab, an al-Qaeda affiliate.
In the heart of the continent, the U.N. suspended flights in eastern Congo following attacks on its helicopters delivering aid (Associated Press). This is the second helicopter attack this month, the first killing a South African peacekeeper.
Tech and Society in Africa
The Southern Africa winner of the African Startup Awards – Envisionit Deep AI secured $1.65mn to expand access to its medical imaging services. The company’s CEO, Dr. Naidoo said, “We have this exciting goal to combine revolutionary technology like artificial intelligence with radiology and we want to transform the way radiologists look, interpret imaging and make diagnosis” (Techcrunch). In addition to its core offering, the company recently rolled out a computer-assisted training model for medical practitioners that are interested in learning radiology skills.
Kenya’s WorkPay is soon to roll out its services in 40 countries in Africa after securing $2.7 million pre-Series A funding. The company provides its clients with HR software services in local currencies across Africa. The YC-backed startup (W20) previously raised $2.1 million seed funding in 2020. The HR payroll market across the world is expected to record a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.2%, reaching a $14.31 billion valuation by the close of this decade.
US in Africa
The Economist reports on how the United States plans to ‘break China’s grip on African minerals.’ Brian Menell, CEO of TechMet reflects that “China has had free rein for 15 years while the rest of the world was sleeping”. Now the US and other western governments are concerned by Beijing’s vice-like grip on the critical minerals and rare earths supply chain — the country refines 68% of the world’s nickel, 40% of copper, 59% of lithium and 73% of cobalt (Brookings Institution). In a strategic play to coax African governments towards contracting with US and western mining houses, U.S. Undersecretary of State for Economic Growth, Energy, and the Environment, Jose Fernandez, announced a U.S.-led Mineral Security Partnership on ethical mining at Africa’s largest mining conference in Cape Town earlier this year (VoA).
*Credit: The Economist
Thanks for reading. See you next week.