Africa's Week In Brief
Crisis in Sudan | Week of 17 - 21 April, 2023
TL;DR
Conflict has broken out in Sudan, pitting two powerful military leaders against one another. The country is now on the precipice of civil war. The US is preparing to evacuate its embassy — never a good sign. I take a closer look at the conflict’s origins and the implications for the country and region
Burkina Faso’s government declares general military mobilization in an effort to restore security to about half of the country which is under the control of various terrorist groups
China has financed the building and refurbishment of some 15 African parliaments and other government buildings, an investment in diplomacy which has returned handsomely
The World Bank eyes a new crisis fund for low income nations
Kenyan runners dominated the Boston Marathon. Evans Chebet, won the men’s race for the second straight year. Hellen Obiri, finished first in the women’s race.
w/o 17 April - 21 April 2023
Graphic of the Week
*Credit: The Economist
In context: The academic literature on coup d'états in Africa is clear and simply; coups follow coups. The conflict in Sudan is consistent with this literature. Today there is a generalized deterioration in security across the Sahel and into the Horn of Africa. Key drivers of regional instability include; food insecurity, climate change, failed public services, activities of terrorist organizations, and population growth — taken together they are the necessary pre-conditions for civil wars and civil strife. As a result, the Sahel and the Horn have the highest prevalence of coups and attempted coups in Africa. The current crisis in Sudan stems from two military overthrows, the first in 2019 and the second in 2021.
Business in Africa
A major regional and international lender, the Asian Development Bank, announced an additional $15 billion in climate financing for low- and middle-income countries through a new lending facility (Nikkei Asia). International development finance has been shaken up as the historic Bretton Woods institutions lose their clout in an increasingly multipolar world.
Crude oil theft cost the Nigerian economy some US$2bn in 2022. This week, the Nigerian Navy confirmed that it has arrested 27 vessels involved in illegal bunkering and crude oil theft. At the same time, numerous illegal refinery sites were deactivated (The Premium Times).
Glencore, a massive commodities trader and miner with its roots in South Africa, is in a legal battle with Teck, one of Canada’s biggest mining companies. The fight concerns a plan to separate Teck's base metals business from its steelmaking coal business — the split is a consequence of an unsolicited acquisition proposal from Glencore. M&A deals in the sector are hot with demand high for the metals that underpin the global energy transition. Do read The World for Sale: Money, Power and the Traders Who Barter the Earth’s Resources for insights on the pivotal part commodity traders play in shaping the world order.
This year’s Africa Wealth Report finds that the continent's total investable wealth currently held amounts to some US$2.4 trillion. The continent’s millionaire population is expected to rise by 42% over the next 10 years. A striking and disappointing feature of the report is that more than 18 500 high-net-worth individuals in Africa have left the continent over the past 10 years – mostly to the UK, the US and the UAE. According to the report, of the 52 billionaires born in Africa, just 23 still live there. South Africa has the most high-net-worth individuals on the continent, but the country’s number of millionaires and billionaires fell by 21% between 2012 and last year.
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has set out a target of 2 trillion rand (about $110 billion) in new investments over the next five years to fix the nation’s energy, security, and infrastructure challenges. Mismanagement and corruption of state-owned companies Eskom (energy) and Transnet (freight logistics) continues to be an economic deadweight. South Africa’s central bank estimates blackouts of up to 10 hours daily are costing the economy 899 million rand ($51 million) each day. See my Business Day article on the subject here.
*Credit: Foreign Policy
China in Africa
New and refurbished African parliaments are springing up across the continent, from Malawi, to Zimbabwe to the mountain kingdom of Lesotho. To date, Beijing has paid for 15 projects in as many countries.
Credit: Voice of America
Investments in brick and mortar pay their dues, just look to the Marshall Plan for evidence that big infrastructure projects guarantee long term allies. China’s investments are expected to “cultivate local elites” according to Paul Nantulya, a research associate at the Africa Center for Strategic Studies.
Despite a downturn in funding for the Belt and Road Initiative, ground was broken on Ghana's new foreign ministry building as well as the new headquarters of West African bloc ECOWAS, currently under construction in Nigeria — both paid for entirely by China (Voice of America).
Nikkei Asia writes that China holds the upper hand in the battle with the US for Africa’s energy. The continent boasts vast reserves of hydrocarbons and renewables. The US for its part has its own Power Africa initiative which aims at supporting economic growth and development by increasing access to reliable, affordable, and sustainable power on the continent.
Climate in Africa
Off Africa’s east coast, aid groups warn that little to no international attention is being paid to the severe hunger in Southeast Madagascar caused by three intense cyclones (AP News).
Democracy in Africa
President Saied continues to oversee democratic backsliding as Tunisian authorities arrested a prominent opposition leader, Rachid Ghannouchi (New York Times).
Health in Africa
Nigeria joins Ghana in announcing provisional approval of a new malaria vaccine developed at Oxford University (Voice of America). Nigeria is the world’s worst-affected country, accounting for 27% of global cases and 32% of global deaths.
Peace and Security in Africa
The dominant story of the week is the Sudan crisis in which the ruling military junta (the Sudanese Armed Forces) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are fighting over the future of the country. RSF’s leader, commonly known as Hemedti, is one of Sudan’s most powerful and wealthy men — controlling gold mines in the country and sharing very close ties with Saudi and Russia. General al-Burhan leads the Sudanese military, he is equally powerful and wealthy, and is backed by Egypt.
The origins of the conflict stem from the 30 year rule of former dictator, Omar Al Bashir who created the RSF as a means to offset Sudan’s ‘official army’ and thereby “coup-proof” his regime. The plan failed and the RSF and Sudanese military, along with a popular uprising, converged to overthrow Al Bashir in 2019. Omar al-Bashir has two warrants of arrest against him for war crimes issued by the International Criminal Court.
Following a second coup in 2021, RSF and the army agreed to transition to democracy and civilian rule. A condition of this agreement was for RSF to be integrated into the Sudanese military — the RSF refused and conflict followed.
*Credit: The Economist
As to who has the upper hand, the military now controls access to Khartoum, cutting off RSF units inside. Indicative of the RSF being on the back foot is its appealing for international help. A longtime supporter of the RSF is Russia. Just this week Russia's Wagner mercenary group issued a statement denying any involvement in Sudan, despite reports to the contrary. Meanwhile, Egypt is now aiding Sudan’s military. The US for its part has stationed more troops in neighboring Djibouti.
The humanitarian toll is likely to be vast. Thousands of Sudanese have fled to Chad — a country which itself is suffering from food insecurity and drought. The World Food Program has halted its work in Sudan after some of its workers were killed. As of this week, some 300 civilians have died and hospitals are experiencing widespread supply shortages. Expect food to become a weapon of war deployed by both the RSF and Sudanese military.
Diplomatic moves are under way to stop the conflict. The Intergovernmental Authority on Development, a regional bloc, held an emergency meeting over the weekend. It agreed to send the presidents of Djibouti, Kenya and South Sudan to Khartoum, Sudan’s capital, as soon as possible to try to reconcile both parties. Similarly, the Arab League also appealed for the immediate halt to the clashes. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for an immediate cessation of the hostility and for both parties to ‘initiate a dialogue to resolve the current crisis’.
South Sudan, Sudan’s neighbour, is likely to suffer too as it exports most of its oil through Sudan, which is a key regional oil hub given Sudan's prime access to the red sea.
Moving east from Sudan along the Sahel, at least 40 Burkinabe troops were killed by militia near Ouahigouya, in the country’s northern region.
*Credit: The Economist
Burkina Faso’s military leaders are coming under increased pressure to reduce jihadi attacks and have this week announced general mobilization. Some western military sources fret that jihadists may be able to encircle the country’s capital, Ouagadougou, having already cut off road links in the north (The Economist). In February, a video appeared on social media that appeared to show members of Burkina Faso’s security forces killing seven teenage boys. The nation’s new junta leader, Capt. Ibrahim Traore, seized power in a coup last September, eight months after a previous coup by military leader Paul-Henri Damiba. Political instability and nationwide insecurity defines the region and the country today (Reuters).
Below the Sahel, the situation in the DRC remains fragile. This Africa Brief has followed developments in the heart of the continent since I started writing some 3 years ago. We follow this conflict not only because the situation in the Congo is a humanitarian crisis but also for the important role the DRC plays in supplying the world with critical minerals and rare earths.
This week President Tshisekedi traveled to Luanda to meet with his counterpart, João Lourenço, to discuss Angola’s role in the war.
*Credit: Financial Times
Tech and Society in Africa
Despite a downturn in VC funding, the continent’s climate tech startups have secured over $860 million in equity funding, mostly in green energy technologies. This figure is some 3.5x greater than previous figures. Pan-African venture firm Novastar last week reported to be raising over $200 million for its third fund, Africa People + Planet Fund, investing in startups developing agriculture and climate solutions on the continent.
Warmly,
Joshua