Africa's Week In Brief
Week of 20 - 24 March, 2023
Dear Africa Brief,
TL;DR
Putin has a warrant for his arrest. Will South Africa arrest him if he arrives at the BRICS Summit in South Africa later this year?
China’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson mentioned Africa no fewer than 14 times in a press conference held on March 22nd. Quote: “China’s friendly cooperation with Africa has been mutually beneficial and fruitful” (Foreign Ministry)
This week the Central African Republic saw Chinese mine workers perish and questions over Wagner’s security guarantees
UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change issues its 6th report; 3.3 billion people are “highly vulnerable” to climate change, with the “largest adverse impacts observed in many locations and/or communities in Africa…”
Anti-government protests hit Kenya, South Africa, and Senegal
A first in 30 year polio outbreak in Burundi
And, remember when the Ever Given blocked the Suez Canal for six days? That happened this week two years ago
w/o 20 March - 24 March 2023
Graphic of the Week
*Credit: The Economist
In context: 2023-2024 are big years for Africa’s democracies. We witnessed how Nigeria’s recent election was its closest since the start of its democracy. As African states have some of the youngest electorates, whom increasingly demand improved governance, political parties face new pressures to shape up or ship out. Read more at The Economist.
Business in Africa
Nigeria, Africa’s leader in backing startups, established a $672 million fund to support its tech startup ecosystem. The fund draws contributions from the African Development Bank, Agence Française de Développement, the Islamic Development Bank, and the country’s government and private sector (Quartz). More African states, especially Egypt, Kenya and South Africa, should take a leaf out of Nigeria’s playbook in establishing their own accelerator funds.
South Africa’s government is under pressure to reassert its business interests in East Africa. Just this year the country has hosted back-to-back state visits by Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni (last visited 11 years ago) and Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan (Tanzania’s last Presidential visit was in 2011).
South African businesses have significant interests in East Africa. The sector privately laments that they have not had the same protectionist problems in Tanzania or Kenya as in Uganda, though commerce between the two countries could be better. About 220 business leaders from both countries participated in a business forum during President Hassan's visit.
China in Africa
The war in Ukraine was not the only topic of conversation between Xi and Putin. A common interest for both is their diplomatic alliances to and economic ties with African states.
On the export side of the trade equation, Chinese arms sales to the continent are likely to increase as Russia battles to supply its own military and sanctions bite its ability to ship weapons abroad. The China-Africa Aero-Technology Import and Export Corporation recently traveled to the DRC and brokered a deal for the purchase of 9 Chinese attack drones for the embattled country (Voice of America).
The South China Morning Post reports on a 4.3x increase in African sesame products to China imported through Shanghai’s Waigaoqiao Port. Africa produces about 65% of the world’s sesame. Chinese officials say African countries including Mali, Togo, Mozambique, Niger, Tanzania, Ethiopia and Uganda account for 90% of China’s import of the stuff. China had given market access to 25 kinds of food and agricultural products from 14 African countries, including Kenya, South Africa, Benin and Egypt.
A likely topic of conversation for Xi and Putin would have been the Central African Republic (CAR), where just this week China's embassy in CAR urged its citizens to avoid traveling outside the capital Bangui after nine Chinese nationals were killed in an attack by militants at a gold mine outside the city (Reuters). The Wagner Group has a hold on CAR’s government in a minerals for security deal (more in the NYT).
Climate in Africa
The human race's prospects of survival were considerably better when we were faced defenceless against tigers than they are today, when we have become defenceless against ourselves. Arnold Toynbee.
The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change sixth assessment report, declared that global temperatures are “more likely than not” to climb to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The report found that ~3.3 billion people are “highly vulnerable” to climate change, with the “largest adverse impacts observed in many locations and/or communities in Africa… rapid, deep and sustained mitigation and accelerated adaptation actions, losses and damages will continue to increase, including projected adverse impacts in Africa.” For an example of how bad the pain can get, Somalia and international aid agencies said that 43,000 people have died in Somalia’s drought last year. They estimated that 18,000-34,000 people may die from hunger in the first six months of this year (The Economist).
African countries have long maintained that historic polluters should pay their fair share in climate mitigation and adaptation on the continent. However, the two biggest polluters, China and the U.S., continue to approve new fossil fuel projects. Last year, China issued permits for 168 coal-fired power plants, and last week the Biden administration approved an enormous oil drilling project in Alaska (The Economist).
IPCC scientists are expecting African countries to cut fossil fuel use twice as fast as developed nations ever did. Yet borrowing money for renewable energy investments is more expensive for African nations (Nature).
*Credit: Our World In Data
For fantastic visualizations of the scale of the global gap between water supply and demand, including the hotspots where that gap is greatest, check out National Geographic’s Water Map. Demand for water in urban areas around the world is projected to increase by 80% by 2050 and could put between 1.7 and 2.4 billion people at risk of water scarcity (Guardian).
A week after Cyclone Freddy made landfall, Malawi President Lazarus Chakwera said that almost half of the country has been devastated by the storm and 360,000 people displaced, the U.N. released a pitiful $5.5 million to assist those affected in the country’s southern region (Devex).
Democracy in Africa
Uganda passed a strict anti-gay bill with punishments, including life in prison and the death penalty for anyone engaging in gay sex. Western donors are likely to freeze aid payments.
Zimbabwe remains a democracy in name only as a court in Harare, has once again refused to dismiss charges against Job Sikhala, an outspoken Zimbabwean opposition politician. Sikhala has been held in a maximum-security prison since June after being arrested alongside fellow members of his Citizens Coalition for Change party.
Meanwhile antigovernment protests ripped through Kenya (leaving a student dead and 200 arrested), Senegal (5000 gathered in support of opposition leader Sonko in Dakar), and South Africa (where the opposition Economic Freedom Fighters marched to demand President Ramaphosa’s resignation). Macky Sall, the president of Senegal, said that in his interpretation of Senegal's constitution its two-term limit would not prevent him from running again in next year’s election (The Economist).
Health in Africa
For the first time in 30 years, health authorities in Burundi announced the detection of eight samples of polio. Circulating poliovirus type 2 is the most prevalent form of polio in Africa and outbreaks of this type of poliovirus are the highest reported in the region, with more than 400 cases reported in 14 countries in 2022 (AllAfrica). Meanwhile, African public health officials continue to pursue PANTHER, a pan-African platform for emergency research and preparedness.
Europe in Africa
Norway’s International Development Minister says global “distrust is growing”. Anne Beathe Tvinnereim worries that lower-income countries, particularly in Africa, are being sidelined from discussions in Western capitals, especially as Russia’s war in Ukraine soaks up the bandwidth.
Peace and Security in Africa
The New York Times covers a topic the Africa Brief has been well ahead of for a few years. In a piece asking A New Cold War? the article considers the rapidly escalating proxy wars across the continent fueled by guns, gold and social media. The heart of the continent in the borderlands between the DRC, Burundi, Rwanda, and Uganda is where this new cold war finds its most active theater. Of late, South Africa’s government has made pronouncements against Rwanda’s activities in the region as well as its recent intervention in Mozambique's Cabo Delgado province (AllAfrica).
Russia in Africa
The issuance of Putin’s arrest warrant puts South Africa’s government in bind. Later this year South Africa will host the BRICS summit. As South Africa is a signatory to the Rome Statute (the declaration establishing the International Criminal Court), a very interesting question has come about as a result of this new warrant.
If Russian President Vladimir Putin attends the summit, would the South African government execute the warrant and arrest him (as would be their duty according to international law)? Famously in 2015, Pretoria refused to detain former Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir, who attended an AU summit in Sandton. South Africa's Supreme Court of Appeals subsequently ruled that the implementation act for the Rome Statute overruled the immunity granted to foreign heads of state, and that al-Bashir should have been arrested.
The South African Communist Party (SACP) says the ICC’s decision reflects on why some countries have chosen not to be part of the Rome Statute.
Tech and Society in Africa
The Chinese technology giant Huawei announced a $300 million investment in Africa’s data centers and cybersecurity industries. Beijing is now one of the largest investors in African tech infrastructure, which some analysts see as a modernized revamp of its Belt and Road Initiative.
Senegal’s president, Macky Sall, opened the Diamniadio National Datacenter (some 30kms from Dakar). The facility cost 46 billion CFA francs ($18.2 million). It was built by Huawei and financed through a Chinese loan.
Warmly,
Joshua