Africa's Week In Brief
Week of April 3 - 6, 2023
Dear Africa Brief,
Arriving to you a day early ahead of the public holidays.
TL;DR:
China dominates lithium mining across the African continent, I take a closer look at the Financial Times’ analysis of its dominance in this critical mineral
The World Economic Forum predicts serious growth in Africa’s logistics sector thanks to the African Free Continental Trade Area (AfCFTA) — a market of 1.4bn people to grow to 2.4bn by 2050
Equator, a climate tech VC, raises $40mn in a rare raise for African climate tech focused VCs
President Putin has more alliances around the globe than the West would like, see some insightful graphics from The Economist further below
To arrest or not to arrest Putin? This is the very real question the South African government faces ahead of the BRICS summit later this year
This week in 2002, after 27 years of fighting, the Angolan government and UNITA signed a cease-fire agreement that ended the country's civil war.
w/o 3 April - 6 April 2023
Graphic of the Week
Credit: Financial Times
In context: China controls some ~95% of the rare earths market from sourcing to processing (accounting for its alliances with major suppliers such as the DRC). Private, public and state owned Chinese firms have operations extending from South Africa, Zimbabwe and Zambia to the cobalt rich mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the bauxite deposits in Guinea and coltan fields of Western Burundi. Beijing has leveraged its diplomatic relations and historical ties with African states in securing mineral deals for its companies.
VP Harris’ recent trip evidences the US’ attempts to replicate a supply chain similar to that of Beijing, i.e. one that is secure and composed of friendly states (see the White House fact sheet on the establishment of a lithium battery assembly plant on the continent). Despite its latest attempts, the US still has a long way to go. In so far as lithium is concerned, some analysts believe the ultimate answer to securing more lithium will not be digging more of it out of the African rock, but by developing substitutes such as sodium-ion batteries in laboratories.
Business in Africa
The World Economic Forum predicts that Africa’s big logistics players are set to cash in as the Africa Free Continental Trade Agreement starts its rollout. Freight and logistics are expected to see an influx of investment to cater for a wider economic expansion on the continent — a market of 1.4 billion people today and growing to 2.4 billion by 2050. The Forum expects an increase in intra-African freight demand of 28%, translating to additional demand for almost 2 million trucks — used primarily for the expected growth in trade of automotive parts and pharmaceuticals — 100,000 rail wagons, 250 aircraft and more than 100 vessels by 2030.
China in Africa
The present-day tech producer requires bauxite, cobalt, coltan, lithium, neodymium, and praseodymium to supply the modern consumers’ voracious diet of electric vehicles (EVs), laptops, and smartphones. Beyond consumer market consumption, these materials are critical for the military and commercial industrialists in their production of complex military equipment, aircraft engine alloys, semiconductors, and electroplating.
China has secured its position as the world’s miner and refiner of the critical minerals necessary to supply the electrification of economies across the globe. The Financial Times looks at one key mineral, lithium, and how China is streaking ahead of the competition in securing lithium supplies on the continent.
*Credit: Financial Times
Climate in Africa
Equator, a climate tech VC firm focused on sub-Saharan Africa, has reached an initial close of its first fund with $40 million in commitments. Its limited partners include British International Investment, the Global Energy Alliance for People and Planet (GEAPP), the Shell Foundation and impact investor DOEN Participaties (TechCrunch).
Democracy in Africa
Kenya’s opposition leader, Mr. Odinga, has called for the suspension of anti-government protests. The opposition will continue talks with the government on reforms to the electoral commission in a bid to ensure the institution's impartiality (Reuters).
Meanwhile in Southern Africa, Botswana’s Former President Ian Khama told AFP news that should he return to Botswana he will be assassinated (BBC). Khama has been living in exile in neighbouring South Africa since 2021. Botswana's Government has dismissed claims that it plans to arrest and kill exiled former President Ian Khama should he return home.
Europe in Africa
Foreign Policy writes that the West’s demographic troubles (i.e., its populations are in steep decline) can be solved by opening labour markets to foreign workers. Indeed, the benefits of a globalized labour market are well recorded for both the source and receiver state. In my opinion piece in South Africa’s Business Day I reflect on the fact that we live in a world where billions of dollars in capital can be sent and received within seconds. On the migration question, perhaps now is a time to try something new, combining globalised capital markets with a globalised and integrated labour market.
Turning to the UK, the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office’s Programme Allocations reveal that the department had planned to spend £9.3 billion from 2022 to 2023, but found itself allocated just £7.5 billion in the latest budget. The Independent Commission for Aid Impact watchdog revealed that in 2022 the government spent around a third of the aid budget, £3.5 billion, at home — largely on hotels for refugees. These figures show that the UK is spending 5 times more at home compared with what it spends on aid for Africa.
Peace and Security in Africa
An alliance of groups known as the Seleka has ruled the Central African Republic’s capital, Bangui for the last month. This week Human Rights Watch (HRW) says their fighters unleashed waves of violence against those they perceived to have been opposition supporters. The Seleka, in turn, said it aimed to liberate the country and bring peace, security and development to the people.
The fallout between France and Burkina Faso continues as two French journalists, representing France's Le Monde and Liberation dailies, were expelled from the country. This is the latest move the junta running the west African country has taken against French media. One of the journalists investigated a video in which Burkinabè soldiers appear to have filmed themselves murdering teenage boys.
Burkina Faso, which witnessed two coups last year, is battling a jihadist insurgency that spilled over from neighboring Mali in 2015. The country is the latest to fall to Russia’s sphere of influence with the Wagner Group operating in the country. Just this week the government said it wants to buy weapons from North Korea (The Economist). The Sahel is in a state of regional insecurity and instability.
Egypt and Syria agreed to strengthen relations during the first official visit by a Syrian foreign minister to Cairo in more than a decade. It represents the latest effort by Arab states to mend ties with President Bashar al-Assad (The Economist).
Instability grips the heart of the continent as an East African regional force recaptured a Congolese border town of Bunagana, which had been under the control of the M23 rebel group (rumored to be backed by the Rwandan government). The regional force has been reinforced with a contingent from South Sudan and has received a pledge of soldiers from Angola (The Economist).
Russia in Africa
Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, positions himself as a champion of the Global South and a “freedom fighter” in the face of Western Imperialism. Last week he approved a new foreign policy strategy aimed at countering the West’s “dominance” in world affairs. The 42-page manifesto, bearing his signature, describes America and its allies as pursuing an “aggressive policy” to weaken Russia. Mr Putin said his country would deepen its relations with “constructive partners” (such as India and China and many African states) to protect itself from “unfriendly states” — i.e., the US and its allies (The Economist). Unfortunately for Putin, his allies are not as well resourced as he would like as the Economist displays in two fascinating graphics.
*Credit: The Economist
South Africa’s government is in a predicament as to whether or not it should invite President Putin to the country later this year for the BRICS summit. While Putin’s question is a Shakespearean one — to visit or not to visit? Professor Hannah Woolaver, Associate Professor in Public International Law at the University of Cape Town (and a former lecturer of your correspondent) said that if SA fails to arrest Putin if he arrives in the country, then the government would be in violation of its international law obligations under the Rome Statute. ‘The government will also be in violation of its own domestic law obligations under the International Criminal Court Act’ (Sunday Tribune).
Meanwhile several ANC members (the ruling party) are currently on a ‘working visit’ to Russia to address the issue. Some options, according to The Conversation, that the government is pursuing, include:
Invite Lavrov over Putin: SA could continue to extend an invitation for Russia to attend the summit but, through diplomatic channels, request that the Russian delegation be led by its Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. This is suboptimal however as Lavrov has in essence become the face of Russia on the international stage since the start of the war in Ukraine.
Go virtual: The UN General Assembly set a good benchmark for this when heads of states submitted video statements due to pandemic restrictions. Putin could attend the BRICS summit virtually.
Despite these hard questions, Pretoria seems bent on taking Russia’s side. This week the capital barred arms sales to Poland because it fears that the munitions would be passed on to Ukraine. South Africa boasts the best arms manufacturers on the continent (see Denel or Armscor). Independent sources – in Poland and SA – told the Daily Maverick that export permits for artillery ammunition sales to Poland have not been granted while applications to supply munitions to Turkey and the UAE have been accepted.
US in Africa
US President Joe Biden launched the 2023 Summit for Democracy, the second of his presidency, in which he announced a $690 million funding pledge for democracy programs around the world. Good news for the US’s democratic allies on the continent.
Unrelated to the Democracy Summit, Felix Tshisekedi, the DRC’s President, urged President Biden to remove sanctions on an Israeli diamond dealer, Dan Gertler. The sanctions are related to bribe-fueled transactions in the African country. For a full appreciation of the power of commodity traders and dealers, consider reading The World For Sale — a book which tracks money, power, and the traders who barter the world’s resources.
Warmly,
Joshua