Africa's Week In Brief
Week of May 15-19, 2023
Dear Friends,
The Africa Brief returns. Happy Friday. Enjoy the read.
Africa's Week In Brief
w/o May 15-19, 2023
AI-frica: Africa’s role in the global AI race is more prominent than you may think with over 2,400 AI organizations operating across various industries (Rest of World). Many ISF Africa Fellows have started their own AI initiatives to solve hard problems in African society.
Another Arms Deal: South Africa is no stranger to dodgy arms deals. The last one got the former President tried for corruption. Last week Friday, US Ambassador to South Africa Reuben Brigety accused South Africa of supplying weapons to Russia. Brigety said he “would bet [his] life on the accuracy of that assertion” (Bloomberg).
Foreign Policy writes that “the U.S. government’s fixation on democracy promotion and lack of focus on Africa has reduced Washington’s influence as other regional powers increase their diplomatic and economic footprint on the continent.”
It's getting hot. The World Meteorological Organization finds that global temperatures are now more likely to breach the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold in the next five years — the first time in human history (Financial Times).
Strive is back: Following a surge in the market value of his publicly listed companies on the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange, billionaire businessman Strive Masiyiwa has once again joined the exclusive group of African billionaires with a net worth of $2 billion or more.
Sudan: The UN refugee agency counts 60,000 Sudanese having fled to Chad since the start of the conflict. While at least 822 civilians have been killed and more than 3,200 wounded in the month-long conflict. The UN on Wednesday launched a $3 billion appeal for Sudan, where an estimated 25 million people are in need of aid (VOA).
Graphics of the Week
*Credit: The Economist and Mo Ibrahim Governance Weekend Facts and Figures
In Context: according to figures from the IMF and World Bank, on average, 17% of government revenues in Africa will go to servicing external debt. Spending on serving debt means less money for public services. This phenomenon seems hardly fair considering African states have much less debt than their rich counterparts yet attract much higher interest rates. African governments are facing a damaging new age of austerity. Austerity, climate change, and a demographic boom will place governments under serious pressure to deliver. If they do not, then unrest will surely follow.
Business in Africa
Despite a $100m decline in his net worth in April, Strive Masiyiwa Zimbabwe’s richest man made a swift recovery in May with his net worth surging to $2 billion in just 18 days. New Zimbabwe reports that the billionaire’s fortune is partly derived from his ownership of a 52% stake in Econet Zimbabwe, the country’s top telecom services provider, as well as a 30% stake in EcoCash Holdings, a versatile smart technology company.
Following on from our Graphics of the Week, African states bend over backwards for top credit ratings, the results of which materially impact interest rates in bond markets. But what good are credit ratings if entire food systems collapse? This is the question Sierra Leone’s President Julius Maada Bio rightly asks (Devex).
European tomato producers are raising concerns about the rapid rise of Moroccan tomato exports to Europe, which have nearly doubled since 2021. Morocco is the third-largest tomato exporter in the world (International Intrigue)
As the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development meets in Samarkand, Uzbekistan the bank’s governors are revisiting the long-running question of expanding its lending to sub-Saharan Africa and Iraq. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine early last year prompted EBRD management to slow-walk the Africa expansion plans at its 2022 meeting, where they delayed any change to the bank’s founding statutes until this year.
And finally, G-7 member nations owe lower-income countries in the global south some $13 trillion in promised development aid and climate support, according to Oxfam (Al Jazeera).
China in Africa
As readers of the Africa Brief, you will know that Chinese entities are behind most development projects in the global south. Quantifying this, the United States Government Accountability Office, finds that Chinese entities received almost one-third of World Bank-funded international contracts, worth $21 billion, between 2013 and 2022, surpassing the value awarded to US companies more than tenfold (Bloomberg).
Chinese entities also dominate Africa's imports of telco (Huawei) and electronic appliances (ZTE).
*Credit: Mo Ibrahim Governance Weekend Facts and Figures
Climate in Africa
A Christian Aid analysis estimated that taxing wealthy Britons at 0.5% could meet the United Kingdom’s “fair share” contribution to the international loss and damage fund for countries worst hit by climate change (The Guardian).
Burundi now has the world’s only capital city, Gitega, powered 100% by solar energy during the daytime. Burundi has pledged to double the capacity of its Mubuga solar farm, which opened in 2021 as a 7.5 megawatt power plant, providing the first solar energy source from an independent power producer to be connected to the Burundian grid (Jerusalem Post).
Climate change-induced water scarcity is, unsurprisingly, an existential threat to the Middle East and North Africa. Will Todman of the D.C.-based Center for Strategic and International Studies points out a wide disparity between climate finance reaching the Middle East, which saw an inflow of $16 billion in 2020, and funding heading to the East Asia and the Pacific islands region, which received $293 billion in the same period (BCG).
Democracy in Africa
The Economist and BBC reports on an investigation into Nigeria’s presidential election which uncovered significant discrepancies between the total number of votes cast at individual polling stations and the official results. The BBC’s own count in Rivers state suggested that Peter Obi had the most votes; the official result declared the state was won by Bola Tinubu, the president-elect.
In Tunisia, Rached Ghannouchi, a prominent opposition politician was sentenced to a year in prison. Kais Saied, Tunisia’s president, has suspended parts of the constitution and assumed authoritarian powers. The sentencing of Ghannouchi comes in this context of democratic backsliding in the North African country.
And the South African city of Johannesburg voted for its 6th Mayor in 22 months. Residents in the metropolis face electricity and water shortages and have to avoid potholes while fretting about dilapidated buildings and crime.
Europe in Africa
All 21 African members of the Commonwealth are backing Zimbabwe’s return to the 54-nation grouping. New Zimbabwe reports that Information Minister Monica Mutsvangwa has confirmed that President Emmerson Mnangagwa met Commonwealth secretary-general Baroness Patricia Scotland during his recent London visit for the coronation of King Charles III and ‘she indicated that 21 African members of the Commonwealth were supportive of Zimbabwe’s re-admittance into the grouping’.
President Robert Mugabe fell out with the West in 2003 and left the group after international condemnation of his violent land reforms and concerns over political repression and rights abuses (New Zimbabwe).
Health in Africa
The WHO’s chief and former Ethiopian Health Minister, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, warns that despite COVID-19’s changed status, the pandemic is still far from over. “It is still killing, and it’s still changing. The risk remains of new variants emerging that cause new surges in cases and death” (Science).
Malawi launched a mass vaccination drive on Monday to immunize more than 9 million children in a bid to avert a health crisis following the deadly Cyclone Freddy (Reuters).
Peace and Security in Africa
Nigeria
Gunmen in Nigeria’s southeast attacked a US convoy, killing four local security and embassy employees while kidnapping another three. Officials say the attack was carried out by a separatist group (CBS). The murders and kidnappings follow rights groups urging Nigerian authorities to suspend the resettlement of people who’ve fled Islamic militants in some regions, citing unmet basic needs in its relocation camps (Voice of America).
South Africa - Russia Relations
Last Friday, US Ambassador to South Africa Reuben Brigety accused South Africa of supplying weapons to Russia. In his remarks Brigety said he “would bet [his] life on the accuracy of that assertion” (Bloomberg). The South African Rand plummeted as a consequence. Undeterred, the head of the South African army met with officials in Moscow and visited Russian military academies, just as his country’s president denied favoring Russia over Ukraine (The Economist). In an attempt to reassert its neutrality stance, President Cyril Ramaphosa announced that he and other leaders from five African countries plan to visit Moscow and Kyiv to help find a peaceful resolution to the war (The New York Times)
Sudan
Despite on-off ceasefires, fighting between Sudan’s army and the Rapid Support Forces, a paramilitary unit, continues. Just this week, Sudan’s army chief, Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, froze bank accounts of the rival paramilitary RSF in an escalation of the conflict between the two parties (Reuters).
The NYT reports that militias (made up mostly of Arab fighters) have exploited the power vacuum in Sudan to rampage through cities, loot households and kill civilians. In response, citizens have begun arming themselves, and non-Arab groups have retaliated against militias.
In the chaos, the Wagner Group enjoys the spoils of war. Foreign Policy reports that four countries where Wagner operates unchecked are under a form of autocracy or have a security vacuum—Libya, Sudan, Mali, and the Central African Republic. In Sudan, Wagner operatives are linked to the training of Sudanese soldiers and the supply of weapons to the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). They enjoy access to gold and other mineral reserves (AP News).
In an effort to counter Russia, the United States has increasingly shared intelligence with African allies. Leaked documents reveal that the US shared intelligence with Chadian authorities that Prigozhin (the head of Wagner) was allegedly working with Chadian rebels to assassinate President Mahamat Déby Itno, who seized power in a military coup in April 2021 following the death of his father (Washington Post).
Tech and Society in Africa
Rest of World writes that Africa’s role in the global AI race is more prominent than you know with over 2,400 AI organizations operating across various industries, including health, wellness, fitness, farming, law, training, and insurance. Moreover, the largest tech acquisition in Africa is an AI-focused enterprise solutions company called InstaDeep, which was acquired for $682 million. Several African countries have national AI strategies (notably Egypt). There are over 30 AI communities in Africa while many African universities offer degrees or specializations in AI.
*Credit: Africa Policy Research Institute
US in Africa
USAID Administrator Samantha Power recently admitted that it will be hard to reach her goal of giving 25% of the agency’s money to local organizations by 2025. The fiscal year ending September 2022, USAID spent about 5.6% of its multibillion dollar assistance programs on local partners. That differs from the 10.5% figure Power recently gave Congress. Overall, 48 countries saw an increase in assistance funding to local implementers — with Kenya on top. On the flip side, 27 countries saw a drop (Devex).
A recurring topic for the Africa Brief are those various analyses and critiques of Washington’s foreign policy failures in respect of the continent. This week, Foreign Policy writers Narayanappa Janardhan and Hussain Haqqani argue that the U.S. government’s fixation on democracy promotion and lack of focus on Africa has “reduced Washington’s influence as other regional powers increase their diplomatic and economic footprint on the continent.” In their words: “Africa is fast becoming a laboratory for the Gulf countries, as well as China and India, to test new economic, diplomatic, and security arrangements”.
Economic data backs up this position. US trade with the continent is less than half what it was in 2008 while Chinese, Indian, and Gulf country trade volumes with Africa have ballooned. The authors write that “Gulf-Asia relations with Africa have grown exponentially—at the cost of the West—in large part because they had fewer political strings attached.” Unless US diplomats heed lessons of the past they will be left behind in Africa (Foreign Policy).
Warmly,
Joshua