Africa's Week In Brief
w/o March 13 - March 17, 2023
Dear Africa Brief,
TL;DR:
GDP growth forecasts for the continent hover around 3-4%, with East Africa the main driver of growth in the region
Which of Africa’s many states exercise the most soft power? Find the results of the Global Soft Power Index below
The US continues its charm offensive with VP Harris and Secretary Blinken traveling to the continent
Africa is better prepared for pandemics, especially in its domestic vaccine production capacities (including mRNA facilities)
Superpower rivalry goes underwater. Check out highlights from Foreign Policy’s analysis of competition in Africa’s underwater tech and telecommunications infrastructure (Foreign Policy)
What I am reading: When Things Fall Apart by Nigerian novelist, Chinua Achebe. Nelson Mandela described Achebe as 'the writer in whose company the prison walls fell down.'
w/o 13 March - 17 March 2023
Graphic of the Week
*Credit: Africa Development Bank
In context: New economic data from the African Development Bank shows East Africa’s outpaced growth. The region is dynamic in its tech ecosystem and its expanding manufacturing and trade facilities. In a separate report, the World Bank published an updated 2023 forecast, it found that Emerging Markets and Developing Economies (EMDEs) face a tough economic year ahead as the combination of slow growth, tightening financial conditions, and heavy indebtedness is likely to weaken investment and trigger corporate defaults. Growth for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) will hover around 3-4% in 2023 (not nearly enough growth to make up for the COVID-19 lost years). China’s reopening and consequent uptick in demand for commodities could perhaps (and once again) save the continent from a tough 2 years. But demand is double-edged as this could also drive inflation.
Business in Africa
With or without you. Botswana’s government plans on selling more diamonds, with or without De Beers (the world’s largest diamond company). The move comes a few months before President Masisi re-enters negotiations with De Beers in June regarding diamond sales (Reuters). Diamonds are actually plentiful, the market is artificially propped up by oligopoly producers limiting supply.
The venture capital winter has reached South Africa’s shores with Africa’s largest company, Naspers (revenue: 22.1 billion USD (2020)) winding down its US$100mil fund, the Foundry. Naspers will maintain investments, including writing follow-on checks, in its nine portfolio companies which include: Planet42, SweepSouth, Naked Insurance, Aerobotics and WhereIsMyTransport.
Green lights. Roam, an EV company operating out of Kenya, opens a new facility with the capacity to produce some 50,000 electric motorcycles per year. The motorcycles are not only green, but they are uniquely suited to the Kenyan and broader African market. The motorcycles include features such as: a removable dual battery solution, increased carrying capacity on its subframe, state-of-the-art software and onboard telemetry, storage compartment in tank (think deliveries), and a USB charging port (making battery charging easy and convenient). Founded in 2017, Roam was recently a finalist in Prince William’s Earth Shot Prize (cleantech).
China in Africa
Kenyan street traders are pressuring its government for market protection. Traders marched on the Deputy President's office in Nairobi to demand an end to what they called a ‘China invasion’ (BBC News). This march follows China Square shop’s rapid success, which has in turn rekindled long-held fears about competition from abroad. The China Square, a mall on the outskirts of Nairobi, shut its doors ahead of the protest.
South China Morning Post cites recent reports on Beijing’s arms sales to the continent as cementing China’s economic and security ties in Africa. China accounted for 22% of the US$9.32 billion in total arms exports to sub-Saharan African countries. Russia remains the largest exporter of arms. The biggest buyers of Chinese arms are: Tanzania, Nigeria, and Sudan.
Climate in Africa
Cyclone Freddy, a record-breaking storm, pushed into Africa’s interior from its east coast, hitting the landlocked Malawi causing the deaths of some 200 people. The WHO has reported at least 500 cases of cholera since the storm's landing. Local hospitals and clinics are either overwhelmed or destroyed.
Democracy in Africa
South Africa’s president, Cyril Ramaphosa, was cleared by the country's ombudsman, the Public Protector, of attempting to cover up the theft of $580,000 in cash hidden in his sofa — the Phala Phala incident. The report will bolster Mr Ramaphosa’s political position (The Economist).
Diplomacy in Africa
This week we look at the Global Soft Power Index, a report which incorporates a broad range of measures, which in combination provide a balanced and holistic assessment of nations’ presence, reputation, and impact on the world stage. Top three positions went to the United States, United Kingdom, and Germany.
While Egypt, South Africa, and Morocco ranked 38th, 40th, and 55th respectively
*Credit: Brand Finance
Health in Africa
Three years on since the WHO announced a pandemic, Africa is better placed to tackle the present health crisis and is more prepared for future pandemics. This week the first set of BioNTech mobile vaccine production units arrived in Rwanda — the units will now be assembled to make a vaccine hub used for shots against various diseases.
In South Africa, the WHO continues its establishment of an mRNA technology transfer hub to unlock the production of vaccines for COVID-19 and other viruses, with the jabs — and the knowledge behind them — to be distributed across the continent and the global south more broadly.
While these are welcome developments, human resourcing in the healthcare sector remains an acute and increasingly pressing issue. Just this week the WHO identified 55 countries, including 37 in Africa, as having severe health worker shortages, which could hinder their ability to achieve universal health care by 2030.
Europe in Africa
Finding friends abroad? UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will host 24 African leaders in April 2024 for the UK-African Investment Summit (News24). The first summit in 2020, saw a combined $15.9bn committed at the meeting. The UK continues to search for economic opportunities and partnerships abroad, especially since it left the European common market. A secondary goal of the meeting is to support Africa's climate change adaptation.
Peace and Security in Africa
In the early editions of the Africa Brief, I wrote about democratic backsliding precipitated by COVID-19 and its shock to Africa’s economies. Mali was one of a few states to experience a wave of coups in 2020. Unfortunately Mali’s junta has doubled down and postponed a constitutional referendum that was central to the coup leaders’ justification for remaining in power until 2024 (France24). Foreign Policy writes that the latest development suggests that despite proclamations on restoring democratic rule, Mali’s military is seeking to remain in power or at least buy some time to overcome political and public opposition to the revised constitution.
As we have learned in past Briefings, Mali’s relationship with Western (particularly France) and regional African partners (ECOWAS) has deteriorated in the last three years. Filling the vacuum left by the West’s departure is Russia’s private paramilitary organization, the Wagner Group. The group is also active in CAR, where they melt gold bars that are then discreetly shipped to Russia.
Meanwhile in the heart of the continent, the Ugandan Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), a ragtag military outfit which has pledged itself to the Islamic State, is suspected of killing some 30 people after attacking a medical facility in east Congo (Al Jazeera). While founded in Uganda in the 1990s, the ADF has since moved to the eastern Congo and has been blamed for thousands of deaths in the last decade.
The killings have continued despite efforts by the Congolese army (FARDC), which is also battling the rebel group M23, whose offensive in recent months has displaced 600,000 people. Congo says the group is backed by neighboring Rwanda, a claim which Rwanda denies (Reuters).
This conflict is not new and can be traced back to the 1990s. A driving factor behind the bloodshed is the control of key mineral deposits. DRC is home to 70% of the world’s cobalt and a significant chunk of the globe’s critical minerals.
Russia in Africa
We know that Russia prizes the few friends it has left in the international community. Many of these friends are found in Africa. Russian diplomacy centers on security guarantees and weapons sales — with mineral rights for security deals a trademark feature of these relations. The Atlantic Council, a D.C based think tank, noted in a recent report that whereas Russia had signed seven military cooperation agreements in Africa between 2010 and 2017, it inked 20 between 2017 and 2021, more than half of them with countries with which it had no previous military ties (The Economist).
Tech and Society in Africa
Submarine fiber-optic cables traversing oceans and connecting the African continent have fast emerged as a geopolitical focus area for the West.
Two monumental projects are underway; Google’s Equiano (named after the 18th-century African abolitionist, Olaudah Equiano) subsea internet cable from Lisbon to Cape Town (connecting to Nigeria) is due to finish its first phase this year. The cable's capacity has not been disclosed but would likely top 200Tb/s. While the 37,000km 2Africa cable is more ambitious, intended to circumnavigate Africa connecting, along the way, to data centers, with the capacity of 180Tb/s and completion scheduled for 2023 or 2024. Facebook, China Mobile, and MTN are a few of 2Africa’s many institutional backers.
*Credit: 2Africa Subsea Cable
Nigeria’s Flutterwave may have its wings clipped in Kenya as it battles litigation in Kenya’s courts. Africa’s most valuable unicorn had about $3 million of its money frozen, in two banks, and 19 mobile money accounts, as authorities investigate fraud and money laundering claims (techcrunch).
US in Africa
The US continues a full out charm and diplomatic offensive with yet another high profile trip to the continent with Anthony Blinken making his second trip to Africa this year, this time visiting Niger and Ethiopia (Reuters). He is expected to pressure the Ethiopian federal government to implement the peace agreement following the conflict in the Tigray region that left some 600,000 people dead. It will be the first-ever visit to Niger by a US secretary of state.
While Vice President Harris and Second Gentleman Douglas Emhoff travel to Accra, Ghana; Dar es Salaam, Tanzania; and Lusaka, Zambia from March 25 to April 2 (White House).
Warmly,
Joshua